Words of Wisdom from the Quintessential Detective

When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.

~ Arthur Conan Doyle, creator of Sherlock Holmes

This would be a good way to analyze any case -- to determine what is impossible? What actually could not have occurred. Not what could not have occurred under any circumstance, but what could not have occurred under a given set of circumstances.

One of the purposes of an investigation is to identify the set of circumstances existing at the time of the crime. This is an essential prerequisite to identifying what is impossible.

No one in any of the multiple law enforcement agencies involved made any effort to determine the particular set of circumstances existing at the time the bodies of Laci and Conner were found. Everyone just assumed they washed ashore.

No one consulted the NOAA for data about the tides and water levels during the weekend of April 12-13, 2003. No one produced any chart showing when the high tides peaked and at what levels. No one bothered to check if the water levels were sufficient to have washed the bodies ashore.

If they had, they would have discovered that it was impossible for Conner to have washed ashore on either April 12 or April 13, 2003. In fact, it was impossible for him to have washed ashore anytime during the previous week. The water levels produced by the high tides simply were not sufficient to carry him over the rocks to land 24 feet inland. Not from any direction.

What makes it impossible? The precise set of circumstances that existed -- that's what makes it impossible. It doesn't matter what could have happened under any other set of circumstances. We must deal with the precise set of circumstances that existed on those days. And under those circumstances, Conner could not have washed ashore. It was impossible.

And whatever remains, however improbable to so many millions of Americans, must be the truth -- Scott Peterson did not murder Laci and Conner.